Do Russian and Chinese Planes Stand a Chance?
For the last several decades, two airplane manufacturers have dominated the commercial aviation market: the Seattle-based American company Boeing and the European Airbus which is spread out across the EU.
Without any real exterior competition, Boeing and Airbus have been in a battle for supremacy amongst themselves. In order to gain a bigger share of the market, these two manufacturers are creating newer, more advanced, and more fuel efficient aircraft to appeal to more airlines. Airbus’ recent acquisition of Bombardier’s C-Series (rebranded as the A220) and Boeing’s attempts to acquire Brazilian manufacturer Embraer only serve to tighten the grip these two juggernauts have on the commercial aviation scene.
Despite their virtual duopoly, new competitors from around the world, most notably from Russia and China, are starting to pop up to challenge Boeing and Airbus’ dominance.
Do any of these planes actually stand a chance? Let’s talk about why or why not.
Back in 2006, Irkut announced it would be dipping its toes into the single-aisle, narrow-body airliner market with it’s new MC-21 aircraft, designed specifically to compete against Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’ A320 series of aircraft.
After more than a decade riddled with delays (mostly due in part to government interference), the first MC-21 too flight in June 2017 and by July 2018 had 175 firm orders.
WHY IT COULD WORK:
One thing that the MC-21 has going for it is its per unit cost. Coming in at $72 million for its -200 variant and $91 million for the -300 variant, the MC-21 is significantly cheaper than its 737 and A320 counterparts which each come in well over $100 million per plane (listed price).
Additionally, Irkut has received significant subsidies from the Russian government which, as a matter of pride, has great interest in seeing a renaissance in their commercial aviation industry. Russia’s numerous state subsidized airlines will also help give Irkut a steady stream of customers.
WHY IT PROBABLY WON’T WORK:
Other than a lower price, the MC-21 doesn’t really have much going for it when compared to it’s American and European counterparts; it has a shorter range and a smaller passenger capacity across the board when compared to its equivalent 737 and A320 variants.
The MC-21’s lower price is also neutralized by the fact that, although the list price for Boeing and Airbus planes is north of $100 million per unit, airlines are usually able to acquire them for much less than that after negotiating with the manufacturer.
Beyond the fact that the MC-21 is just an inferior plane, we have to be realistic here and talk about optics: Russia does not have a good image right now on the world stage.
Despite the cold war being over, Russia is still led by what many people consider to be a supervillain (please don’t kill me), and the Putin administration’s heavily criticized treatment of LGBTQ+ people, the (unpeaceful) annexation of Crimea, supporting Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the potential meddling in the United States’ elections in 2016 have left many wanting to distance themselves from Russia and anything it produces.
It is in no way coincidental that the only orders currently placed for the MC-21 have been made by companies that are either Russian or in countries that were formerly part of the Soviet bloc. It’s just not a great look to be associated with Russia, especially not when their product is worse than what you get elsewhere.
The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (or COMAC for short) has been coming out with a wide range of aircraft families to fill different needs in the market.
Meant to be a direct competitor to more established regional jets such as the Embraer E175, the ARJ21 is COMAC’s first big venture and 46 are currently in operation across various Chinese airlines.
COMAC has now been working on going after bigger fish with their C919, meant to challenge the 737 and A320.
WHY IT COULD WORK:
The ARJ21-700 and -900 are pretty decent competitors against the Embraer E175 and the larger E195, both in terms of passenger capacity, range, and size. But beating out Embraer is not the way to make yourself a contender in the commercial aviation market.
With the C919, COMAC is making a plane to go head to head with Boeing and Airbus. At a per unit cost around $60-70 million, the Chinese manufacturer is trying to severely undercut the other manufacturing giants. But selling planes cheaper than the competition isn’t COMAC’s ultimate strategy here. COMAC has very little interest in getting orders from European or even American carriers.
KEEP IT CLOSE TO HOME:
The Asia-Pacific region is currently the fastest growing airline market, and with numerous new airlines popping up in the area to satisfy increased passenger numbers, COMAC will be pushing heavily to encourage those airlines to buy from them over their Western competitors.
China is also the largest individual market in the Asia-Pacific region and is expected to surpass the United States as the world’s largest passenger market by 2030 according to the International Air Transport Association.
Since most domestic and regional flights in the country are operated by Chinese airlines (which are then to an extent run by the Chinese government) these airlines can be (and probably will be) strong armed into buying COMAC airplanes, giving the manufacturer guaranteed customers in an ever growing market. At the time of this writing, COMAC claims to have 305 firm orders for the C919 as well as over 700 options, almost all exclusively from Chinese carriers.
A plot twist came in 2011 when Irish-based low-cost carrier Ryanair signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with COMAC about its interest in a 200-seat variant of the C919. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has said on record that he thinks it’s good for Boeing and Airbus to get some competition from other competitors.
It’s important to remember that MOUs are in no way binding. If you ask me, by helping to start rumors that Ryanair is interested in the C919, Michael O’Leary is probably trying to put pressure on Boeing so he can get better deals the next time he wants to buy planes for Ryanair’s almost exclusively 737 fleet.
EYES ON AFRICA:
One way that COMAC could expand its reach is by aggressively expanding to the African market. The Chinese government has already won a lot of goodwill in the continent by investing billions of dollars on various different infrastructure and manufacturing projects. That goodwill usually brings influence along with it.
Although the airline market in Africa is still relatively small when compared to Asia, Europe, and North America, several African countries are starting national airlines, much in the same way as Singapore and Malaysia with their respective airlines.
These government-funded carriers are making big investments in their fleets. One noticeable example is Air Senegal which became the first airline to receive Airbus’ new A330neo.
With more airlines like RwandAir, Air Peace, Congo Airways, Jambojet, and several others starting operations within the last decade, the market in Africa is primed for expansion and COMAC would be smart to use Chinese government influence in the continent to challenge the Airbus and Boeing duopoly.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT WORK:
Like Russia, China doesn’t exactly have the most gleaming reputation on the world stage and as such, airlines based in Western countries will be very hesitant to buy from the Chinese manufacturer. US Sanctions on China has also meant that obtaining parts for this aircraft will also be difficult, which will inevitably slow down production and will also serve as another reason for airlines to hesitate to buy the new plane.
The smaller circle is the range of the C919 vs the much longer range of the Airbus A321XLR
Although the passenger capacity on the C919 is comparable to those of the 737 and A320, it’s range of roughly 2000-2200 nautical miles is almost 40% shorter than its Boeing and Airbus counterparts. Although that is plenty far for many domestic flights, that won’t even get you from Beijing to Hanoi. Hell it won’t even get you from one end of the country to the other. By comparison, Airbus’ new A321XLR would be able to get you from Beijing all the way to Istanbul.
Overall, I would say that the COMAC family of planes have a much better chance of succeeding in the future than the MC-21. Not because it’s a better plane (in fact it’s pretty much worse in every category) but because of the support it is receiving from the Chinese government. Additionally, China’s population of over 1.3 billion people and it’s ever expanding middle class will further drive up the aviation market meaning more planes will be needed to satisfy the demand.
In 2014, COMAC and Irkut’s parent company, the United Aircraft Corporation, agreed to collaborate on a new, long-range wide body aircraft to succeed the Ilyushin IL-96. The joint venture, effectively named the China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Corporation (CRAIC for short) announced their intentions on creating a plane to rival the Airbus A330 and the Boeing 787 Dreamliner with the C929.
Since the plane is only in it’s initial development stages, it’s hard to gauge how the C929 would stack up against it’s American and European counterparts, but therein lies the problem. Due to COVID and other delays, the C929 isn’t predicted to be introduced until 2028, meaning it’s essentially too late to the game. By then, several airlines that already have a need for that specific type of aircraft will already have placed orders with either Boeing or Airbus. It will take a significant improvement (or a significant discount in price) to convince non-Chinese airlines to buy it.
At the end of the day, it may be a fool’s errand for any new airplane manufacturer to try to compete head to head with Boeing and Airbus. These companies simply have too much infrastructure already in place and their aircraft models like the 737 and A320 already have a strangle hold on the medium-haul, narrow body market and the 777, 787, A330, and A350 already have an established presence and reputation among airlines in the long haul market.
Where Boeing and Airbus are currently failing is in the “middle of the market.” To explain what the “middle of the market” is, consider the following planes: the Boeing 737 MAX 10, the manufacturer’s largest single-aisle aircraft, and the 787-8 Dreamliner, Boeing’s smallest twin-aisle plane. In an all-economy configuration, the 737 MAX 10 can carry 230 passengers with a range of 3700 miles while the 787-8 can carry 359 passengers in a similar configuration with a range of 8300 miles.
Credit to Wendover Productions for the graphic
