The End of the Jumbo Jet — The Traveling Chef

Ever since I was a kid and saw the movie Air Force One staring Harrison Ford, I always dreamed of flying on a Boeing 747. Although I traveled a lot during my childhood, I had only flown on twin-jet planes. Something about a plane that was so big that it needed four engines to fly was awe inspiring to me.

Fast forwards to the present day and flying on one of these massive aircraft has still alluded me. In fact, there are numerous reasons why it is becoming increasingly difficult to get on board on one of these flying behemoths.

In 1969, aircraft manufacturer Boeing unveiled the 747 “Jumbo Jet” to the world. With a first of its kind “hump” upper deck, the 747 was, until 2007, the largest passenger aircraft in the world.

Dubbed the “Queen of the skies,” the 747 was in service for nearly 40 years before being overthrown as as “largest commercial aircraft" when European rival Airbus delivered its first A380 “Super Jumbo.”

With it’s fully double-decker design, the A380 could seat 200 more passengers than the 747 in a high-density, single class configuration, and around 100 more in your typical 3-class configuration.

When debuted, both of these planes were groundbreaking, state-of-the-art pieces of engineering promising unparalleled luxury and comfort in the sky as well as some of the longest ranges of any other aircraft at the time.

Despite the fanfare that immediately followed each plane, both of these planes are experiencing dwindling sales and are being phased out of numerous fleets around the world.

The tale of the “Jumbo Jet’s” demise is complicated but can best be summed up by a change in the nature of the aviation industry as well as advancements in other aircraft.

Due to the technological constraints of their time, most airlines operated a “Hub and Spoke” model of passenger distribution. Under this model, passengers are funneled from smaller destinations to larger hubs where they are then put on larger aircraft and transported to other large hubs where they then have to change aircraft again and then get sent to their final destinations.

Flights between hubs would obviously have a very high demand so airlines could put large planes, like the 747, on these routes and book them completely. This made the airlines happy because empty seats are bad for business.

“It’ll be a cold day in hell before I let [twin-engine aircraft] fly long-haul over water routes.”

— Lynn Helms, Head of the Federal Aviation Administration under Ronald Reagan

The 747 was also helped partially due to unnecessary government regulation. During the 60s, 70s, and 80s, twin-engine aircraft were not permitted to fly anywhere further than sixty minutes from a diversion airport in the case of an emergency.

This rule severely limited what smaller planes could do and forced airlines to put inefficient three- or four-engine aircraft on most routes that went over the ocean. This in part helped the continued dominance of planes like the DC-10 and the 747 on long-haul routes.

It wasn’t until 1985 that the FAA granted permission to TWA to fly it’s twin-engine 767 direct from Boston to Paris, a flight that took it up to 120 minutes away from a diversion airport. This change in the rule marked the dawn of the ETOPS (Extended-range Twin-engine Operational Performance Standards) certification. The ETOPS certification means that the plane has adequate redundancies, communication equipment, and fire suppression systems to fly safely in the event of a single engine failure.

This sudden reversal in policy meant the days of the 747’s monopoly over these long-haul transatlantic routes were over and airlines would be able to fly smaller and more efficient planes on these routes.

This was compounded by the introduction of the Boeing 777 in 1993, a twin-engine plane that could not only fly further than the 747, but also more efficiently.

In the early 2000s, Airbus and Boeing began developing their next generation of aircraft. Still placing its faith in the the hub-and-spoke model of air travel, Airbus set their sights on a big plane, one that would finally dethrone the 747 as the “Queen of the skies.”

Developed under the working title A3XX, the plane we’ve come to know as the A380 has been rumored and teased since the late 1980s, but Airbus finally felt that the market was ready for a plane this big that could travel up to 17 hours without refueling.

Boeing on the other hand recognized that the market was changing. Airlines were shifting away from “hub and spoke” and were adopting more of a “point to point” model of transportation that minimized the need for major hubs and would instead allow for more direct flights between smaller markets such as Hartford, CT to London.

United was one of the first airlines to begin using this model when it began using its hub at Newark airport to offer direct flights to smaller destinations in the British Isles using its mostly outdated fleet of 757s pushed to the limits of their range.

By using a smaller, narrow body jet, United was able to ensure that it could fill most of the seats on routes that were not particularly high in demand. These routes are known as long and skinny routes, long distance, skinny demand.

Its no surprise that because of this, United was one of the main airlines whispering its desires for a smaller plane, more efficient plane with a longer range to the people at Boeing. This led to the development of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner.

Instead of focusing on bigger, Boeing focused on designing an aircraft that would be the most fuel efficient plane in its class with one of the longest ranges imaginable. To achieve this goal, Boeing set out to create one of the lightest planes ever built in terms of size as it created the first passenger jet made primarily of composite materials.

Made primarily of carbon fiber reinforced polymer, the Dreamliner is 15% lighter than if it were built using traditional materials. This helps the plane achieve the fuel efficiency that airlines were demanding in the next generation plane.

With a range of up to 9,800 miles and with an ETOPS certification that allows it to fly up to five and a half hours away from a diversion airport, the Dreamliner can fly between almost any two major destinations in the world.

Not to be outdone however, eight years after the introduction of the Boeing 787, in 2015 Airbus unveiled the A350, a plane made primarily of composite materials. Specifically designed to compete with Boeing’s 777 and 787 aircraft, the A350 promised greater fuel efficiency and a better passenger experience.

In its first two years, the A350 surpassed the number A380s sold and in five years surpassed the number of A380s delivered.

Airbus tested the market and found out what Boeing seemingly knew all along: airlines and passengers want smaller planes.

Boeing’s main reason for developing the Dreamliner was due to increasingly poor sales of the giant 747. With no real plane like it, Airbus failed to see this trend.

So what’s the future for the “jumbo” jets? Well, it honestly looks bleak. Singapore Airlines, the first airline to debut the A380, declined to extend their lease on the first two aircraft they received from Airbus.

German investment fund Dr. Peters, which actually owned the planes, failed to find a new home for them and now the two aircraft are to be broken down and sold for parts.

The A380s are becoming increasingly hard to sell as Airbus has failed to commit longterm to the continuation of the plane. This same lack of commitment has caused Emirates, who has purchased over half of all the A380s, to decrease its outstanding order in favor of purchasing more of Airbus’ A350 and Boeing’s 787.

Due to the decrease in demand, Airbus has slowed overall production of the A380 to twelve a year, while Boeing has increased the production of the 787 to fourteen a month.

The era of the 747 is coming to a close as well. In December 2017, Delta Airlines sent its last 747 into retirement, making it the last US-based airline to do so after United Airlines did the same earlier the same year. After 51 years in the sky, if you want to ride a 747 you'll need to be traveling abroad.

Despite lack of demand, Boeing still developed the largest variant of it’s jumbo jet with the 747-8. Debuting in 2012, the aircraft received 154 orders since then with the cargo variant, the 747-8F, accounting for more than 60% of the sales.

Insiders expect the last remaining airlines still operating the 747 and A380 to retire them by the mid- to late-2020s, marking the end of the jumbo jet era. Or, at the very least ending it as a commercial aircraft. Many still agree that the 747 and A380 have futures as cargo aircraft due to their size, range, and dependability.

The end to the era of the jumbo jet seems all but inevitable at this point. Smaller planes with better efficiency, range and passenger comfort are here to stay.

The A380 was a failure. With fewer than 200 ordered, the plane has been left stranded in a Catch-22 where airlines won’t buy it without long term commitment from Airbus, and Airbus won’t commit to it long term if airlines don’t buy it. This limbo has all but ensured the death of the largest commercial airplane in history.

Point-to-point flying has always been better for the consumer and with recent advances in aircraft design as seen in the 787 Dreamliner and A350, its now better for airlines too.

As an avgeek, one of my biggest regrets in life is that I never got to fly on the Concorde before its retirement, and now time seems to be running out for the “jumbo jets.”

Fortunately for Audrey and I, we have numerous adventures planned to Asia in the near future and we will actively be trying to book at least one flight on the 747 and A380 before the last one is sent to the scrapyard.