COVID-19's Real Threat to the Restaurant Industry

The novel coronavirus known to the world as COVID-19 has radically changed the way we have all lived our lives for the past several months. In the United States alone, the unemployment rate is expected to reach 20% by the end of May. With one out of every five Americans out of a job, no industry has been impacted more than the restaurant industry.

With no real end to this crisis in sight, many restaurateurs are getting antsy and some are pushing for the government mandated restrictions to be eased up or completely lifted. Their anxiety is understandable: they just had to lay off several employees, their revenue (even for restaurants still offering take out) has tanked, and their fixed costs like rent and utilities still have to get paid. In an industry with the tightest of profit margins, shutting down for any amount of time can lead to permanent closure.

As more and more people begin demanding that things return to “normal,” a larger hidden danger looms that can hurt the restaurant industry even more: re-opening too early.

Under most states’ plans for a “phased re-opening,” restaurants will initially be allowed to welcome dine in customer’s at a limited capacity (25% - 50% capacity varying from state to state) and there must be at least 6 feet between each table. Restaurants across the country have taken some interesting measures to comply with the guidelines. Many restaurants simply mark tables off limits to comply with social distancing guidelines, some in Ohio have put shower curtains between each table to prevent the spread of the disease, and some are even filling empty seats with mannequins to give the illusion of a full restaurant.

It may seem counter intuitive, but by operating at these very limited capacities, restaurants are poised to actually lose more money than if they just remained operating as take out only. With an open dining room, the variable costs (higher utility, increased staffing, etc.) rise significantly and with only a quarter of the people coming in to eat, revenue will be greatly impacted.

What’s more, although restaurants are beginning to reopen with limited capacities, there is absolutely no guarantee that they will be able to fill the seats they have available. In a poll conducted by Emerson College between May 8-10, 65% of respondents say they do not feel safe eating out at restaurants even with social distancing practices in place.

Finally, the greatest threat COVID poses to the restaurant industry is a second wave of new cases and deaths. As bad as diner confidence is currently, a second spike in confirmed cases will cause consumer confidence to hit rock bottom, and local governments will enact lockdown orders all over again. Out of fear of public backlash, the second time around these restrictions will probably not be relaxed until a vaccine is made.

As a chef, this topic hits incredibly close to home for me. I want to get back to work. I love being in a kitchen. I love the intensity, the speed, the violence, and the comradery of a restaurant kitchen. I miss making food for others to enjoy. I don’t only love creating food but I love eating it too and I miss going out to enjoy a meal prepared for me rather than by me. We had plans to travel to a couple destinations this year yet here I am writing in our travel blog with nowhere to go.

But this isn’t about me and this isn’t about the rest of us rushing to get back to a semblance of normalcy. This is about protecting the most vulnerable among us. This is about sacrificing the little pleasures in life for the greater good of our community. Rushing to re-open will just prolong this crisis and will ultimately hurt the industry I love even more.

Stay inside. Stay safe.